Forecasting vs non-forecasting predition for time series anomaly detection












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I have got the objective of implementing a uni/multivariate online anomaly detection system.



After multiple days of research, I could collect many ways to achieve this (Eg. moving average solutions such as ARIMA, Space state solutions as Kalman filters, Holt-Winters double/triple exponential smoothing, CUSUM, one-class SVM, deep learning sliding-windows autoencoding approaches, deep learning using autoregressive neural networks, etc).



In general, anomaly detection on time series works with a threshold on the deviation originated from the difference between a predicted point or group of points between the original timeseries and the predicted one.



Attending to this prediction, this can happen in:




  1. a forecasting way (such as ARIMA would do, or you could achieve this result also by using a LSTM deep learning model),


  2. or in a non-forecasting way (eg. denoising with an autoencoder would do, or analyzing fragments STL+ESD used by Twitter).



Which are the (dis)advantages of each one, attending to the objective I mentioned?









share









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    0












    $begingroup$


    I have got the objective of implementing a uni/multivariate online anomaly detection system.



    After multiple days of research, I could collect many ways to achieve this (Eg. moving average solutions such as ARIMA, Space state solutions as Kalman filters, Holt-Winters double/triple exponential smoothing, CUSUM, one-class SVM, deep learning sliding-windows autoencoding approaches, deep learning using autoregressive neural networks, etc).



    In general, anomaly detection on time series works with a threshold on the deviation originated from the difference between a predicted point or group of points between the original timeseries and the predicted one.



    Attending to this prediction, this can happen in:




    1. a forecasting way (such as ARIMA would do, or you could achieve this result also by using a LSTM deep learning model),


    2. or in a non-forecasting way (eg. denoising with an autoencoder would do, or analyzing fragments STL+ESD used by Twitter).



    Which are the (dis)advantages of each one, attending to the objective I mentioned?









    share









    $endgroup$















      0












      0








      0





      $begingroup$


      I have got the objective of implementing a uni/multivariate online anomaly detection system.



      After multiple days of research, I could collect many ways to achieve this (Eg. moving average solutions such as ARIMA, Space state solutions as Kalman filters, Holt-Winters double/triple exponential smoothing, CUSUM, one-class SVM, deep learning sliding-windows autoencoding approaches, deep learning using autoregressive neural networks, etc).



      In general, anomaly detection on time series works with a threshold on the deviation originated from the difference between a predicted point or group of points between the original timeseries and the predicted one.



      Attending to this prediction, this can happen in:




      1. a forecasting way (such as ARIMA would do, or you could achieve this result also by using a LSTM deep learning model),


      2. or in a non-forecasting way (eg. denoising with an autoencoder would do, or analyzing fragments STL+ESD used by Twitter).



      Which are the (dis)advantages of each one, attending to the objective I mentioned?









      share









      $endgroup$




      I have got the objective of implementing a uni/multivariate online anomaly detection system.



      After multiple days of research, I could collect many ways to achieve this (Eg. moving average solutions such as ARIMA, Space state solutions as Kalman filters, Holt-Winters double/triple exponential smoothing, CUSUM, one-class SVM, deep learning sliding-windows autoencoding approaches, deep learning using autoregressive neural networks, etc).



      In general, anomaly detection on time series works with a threshold on the deviation originated from the difference between a predicted point or group of points between the original timeseries and the predicted one.



      Attending to this prediction, this can happen in:




      1. a forecasting way (such as ARIMA would do, or you could achieve this result also by using a LSTM deep learning model),


      2. or in a non-forecasting way (eg. denoising with an autoencoder would do, or analyzing fragments STL+ESD used by Twitter).



      Which are the (dis)advantages of each one, attending to the objective I mentioned?







      time-series anomaly-detection online-learning





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      freesoulfreesoul

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